Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-04-28 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 46.0%

WSH: 54.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.92

WSH: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	27	26	1	96.3%	2.58	0	1.58
WSH	V. Vanecek	26	21	5	80.8%	2.39	1	-2.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYI at home vs WSH: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	9	0	0.58
1	WSH	9	0	0.48
2	NYI	10	0	0.57
2	WSH	17	0	0.78
3	NYI	11	1	1.25
3	WSH	19	0	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3