Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-02-15 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

Win Probability

PIT: 64.5%

PHI: 35.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.51

PHI: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

PIT

C. DeSmith

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	27	23	4	85.2%	2.15	0	-1.85
PHI	C. Hart	34	29	5	85.3%	3.36	1	-1.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs PHI: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.75
1	PHI	8	0	0.58
2	PIT	21	0	1.34
2	PHI	17	0	0.82
3	PIT	9	1	1.10
3	PHI	10	0	0.75
4	PIT	1	0	0.18
4	PHI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8