Tampa Bay Lightning at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-02-11 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 61.8%

TBL: 38.2%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.12

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	32	28	4	87.5%	3.28	2	-0.72
TBL	B. Elliott	19	16	3	84.2%	1.58	0	-1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • ARI at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-25	TBL 6 - 3 ARI	TBL	TBL
2023-11-28	ARI 3 - 1 TBL	ARI	ARI
2023-02-15	ARI 1 - 0 TBL	ARI	ARI
2022-12-31	TBL 5 - 3 ARI	TBL	TBL
2022-02-11	ARI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	11	0	0.77
1	TBL	12	1	1.06
2	ARI	7	0	0.09
2	TBL	9	0	0.63
3	ARI	11	0	0.73
3	TBL	20	1	1.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3