Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-02-08 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 56.3%

PIT: 43.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.88

PIT: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	21	4	84.0%	2.99	3	-1.01
PIT	Tristan Jarry	45	43	2	95.6%	3.09	0	1.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BOS at home vs PIT: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	PIT
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	19	0	1.06
1	PIT	13	1	0.74
2	BOS	23	0	1.21
2	PIT	10	0	0.46
3	BOS	12	0	0.81
3	PIT	12	2	1.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0