New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-02-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 47.1%

NYI: 52.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.94

NYI: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

D. Tokarski

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Tokarski	33	30	3	90.9%	2.50	1	-0.50
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	41	35	6	85.4%	3.77	2	-2.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs NYI: 7-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.44
1	NYI	11	0	0.51
2	BUF	21	0	1.47
2	NYI	16	1	1.45
3	BUF	17	2	1.87
3	NYI	13	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2