Columbus Blue Jackets at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2022-02-17 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 7 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 56.1%

CBJ: 43.9%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.38

CBJ: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	37	30	7	81.1%	3.80	3	-3.20
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	32	28	4	87.5%	2.99	2	-1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CHI at home vs CBJ: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CBJ 4 - 0 CHI	CBJ	CBJ
2026-01-30	CHI 2 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-22	CBJ 5 - 1 CHI	CBJ	CBJ
2024-12-01	CHI 3 - 6 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2024-03-02	CHI 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	0	0.52
1	CBJ	20	0	0.91
2	CHI	12	1	1.10
2	CBJ	11	0	0.68
3	CHI	12	1	1.37
3	CBJ	18	3	2.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 7 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0