New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-12-29 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

BUF: 48.3%

NJD: 51.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.95

NJD: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

NJD

M. Blackwood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	42	38	4	90.5%	2.64	2	-1.36
NJD	M. Blackwood	22	19	3	86.4%	1.94	0	-1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs NJD: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	NJD 1 - 2 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-12-21	NJD 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-11-28	BUF 0 - 5 NJD	NJD	BUF
2025-02-02	BUF 4 - 3 NJD	BUF	NJD
2024-10-05	NJD 3 - 1 BUF	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	6	0	0.28
1	NJD	20	1	1.00
2	BUF	12	0	0.88
2	NJD	22	0	0.46
3	BUF	11	0	0.78
3	NJD	17	1	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0