Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-02-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

TOR: 58.9%

PIT: 41.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.78

PIT: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

J. Campbell

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	46	45	1	97.8%	3.63	2	2.63
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	25	4	86.2%	2.60	1	-1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs PIT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	1	1.28
1	PIT	17	0	0.77
2	TOR	12	0	0.83
2	PIT	21	2	1.59
3	TOR	10	0	0.49
3	PIT	22	0	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8