Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-03-24 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

NYI: 52.6%

DET: 47.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.22

DET: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

DET

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	39	37	2	94.9%	3.04	0	1.04
DET	T. Greiss	26	21	5	80.8%	3.65	4	-1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs DET: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	DET 3 - 2 NYI	DET	DET
2025-11-20	DET 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	DET
2025-10-23	NYI 7 - 2 DET	NYI	NYI
2024-11-25	NYI 2 - 4 DET	DET	NYI
2024-11-21	DET 2 - 1 NYI	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	8	2	0.93
1	DET	16	0	0.86
2	NYI	17	0	1.07
2	DET	15	0	0.92
3	NYI	13	2	1.65
3	DET	19	0	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0