Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-12-29 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 46.9%

NSH: 53.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.17

NSH: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

WSH

I. Samsonov

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	20	17	3	85.0%	1.65	0	-1.35
NSH	Juuse Saros	37	32	5	86.5%	4.32	2	-0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs NSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	WSH 4 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-11	NSH 3 - 2 WSH	NSH	NSH
2025-01-11	NSH 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	NSH
2024-11-06	WSH 3 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2023-12-30	WSH 2 - 3 NSH	NSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	17	0	1.39
1	NSH	10	0	0.47
2	WSH	13	0	0.78
2	NSH	10	0	0.50
3	WSH	17	2	2.15
3	NSH	11	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2