Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2021-12-30 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 62.9%
BUF: 37.1%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.49
BUF: 2.90
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA
BUF
M. Subban
| Stat | NYI | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.000 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 0.00 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | Semyon Varlamov | 37 | 36 | 1 | 97.3% | 3.17 | 1 | 2.17 |
| BUF | M. Subban | 32 | 28 | 4 | 87.5% | 2.95 | 0 | -1.05 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs BUF: 4-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | BUF 4 - 3 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-24 | NYI 0 - 5 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-20 | BUF 3 - 2 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-23 | NYI 1 - 7 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2024-11-30 | NYI 3 - 0 BUF | NYI | NYI |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYI | 10 | 0 | 0.93 |
| 1 | BUF | 14 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 2 | NYI | 15 | 0 | 0.96 |
| 2 | BUF | 11 | 0 | 0.73 |
| 3 | NYI | 15 | 0 | 1.06 |
| 3 | BUF | 17 | 0 | 1.35 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.5 - 2.9
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