Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-02-10 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

OTT: 40.2%

PIT: 59.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.94

PIT: 3.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

OTT

M. Murray

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	M. Murray	44	42	2	95.5%	3.47	1	1.47
PIT	C. DeSmith	26	26	0	100.0%	2.20	1	2.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • OTT at home vs PIT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	21	1	1.13
1	PIT	18	0	0.74
2	OTT	11	0	0.70
2	PIT	15	0	1.01
3	OTT	9	0	0.37
3	PIT	24	1	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 0 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.6