Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2021-12-31 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 53.2%

WSH: 46.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.26

WSH: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

DET

T. Greiss

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	T. Greiss	27	24	3	88.9%	2.77	2	-0.23
WSH	I. Samsonov	20	19	1	95.0%	1.92	0	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs WSH: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	DET
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	12	0	1.00
1	WSH	7	0	0.21
2	DET	6	0	0.50
2	WSH	14	1	0.78
3	DET	7	0	0.43
3	WSH	16	1	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9