New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-12-31 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 New York Rangers (SO)

Win Probability

TBL: 45.6%

NYR: 54.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.06

NYR: 3.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

B. Elliott

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	26	22	4	84.6%	3.48	2	-0.52
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	30	27	3	90.0%	3.51	1	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • TBL at home vs NYR: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	1.25
1	NYR	5	0	0.39
2	TBL	15	1	1.29
2	NYR	14	1	1.26
3	TBL	10	0	0.77
3	NYR	12	0	0.63
4	TBL	0	0	0.00
4	NYR	4	0	0.22
5	TBL	3	0	0.20
5	NYR	3	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5