Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-02-13 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

DAL: 45.7%

COL: 54.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.01

COL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

B. Holtby

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	B. Holtby	30	26	4	86.7%	2.69	1	-1.31
COL	D. Kuemper	23	23	0	100.0%	2.00	1	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • DAL at home vs COL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	8	0	0.52
1	COL	16	0	0.71
2	DAL	21	1	1.33
2	COL	15	0	1.12
3	DAL	7	0	0.15
3	COL	14	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1