Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-01-01 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

Win Probability

BOS: 66.7%

BUF: 33.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 4.05

BUF: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

BOS

L. Ullmark

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	22	19	3	86.4%	1.83	0	-1.17
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	41	37	4	90.2%	3.90	1	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs BUF: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	19	0	0.87
1	BUF	5	0	0.29
2	BOS	18	0	1.51
2	BUF	16	0	1.04
3	BOS	19	1	1.41
3	BUF	14	0	0.46
4	BOS	1	0	0.10
4	BUF	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.1 - 3.5