Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-01-02 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 41.7%

TBL: 58.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.99

TBL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	38	38	0	100.0%	3.57	0	3.57
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	17	4	81.0%	2.33	1	-1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • NYR at home vs TBL: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.89
1	TBL	24	0	1.64
2	NYR	13	1	1.17
2	TBL	18	0	1.17
3	NYR	5	0	0.27
3	TBL	13	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3