New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-01-02 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 57.6%

NJD: 42.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.22

NJD: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

I. Samsonov

NJD

M. Blackwood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	37	33	4	89.2%	2.34	1	-1.66
NJD	M. Blackwood	30	27	3	90.0%	2.78	1	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 26% • WSH at home vs NJD: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	0	1.05
1	NJD	15	1	1.15
2	WSH	12	0	0.65
2	NJD	18	0	0.59
3	WSH	15	1	0.93
3	NJD	11	0	0.45
4	WSH	1	0	0.15
4	NJD	3	0	0.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8