Dallas Stars at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-02-20 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 45.6%

DAL: 54.4%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.79

DAL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

ARI

S. Wedgewood

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	S. Wedgewood	33	32	1	97.0%	2.89	0	1.89
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	24	3	88.9%	2.11	1	-0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • ARI at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-24	ARI 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-20	DAL 5 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-11-14	DAL 4 - 3 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-03-31	ARI 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	ARI
2023-03-01	DAL 4 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	15	0	0.59
1	DAL	10	0	0.46
2	ARI	13	0	0.69
2	DAL	13	0	0.84
3	ARI	6	1	0.83
3	DAL	28	0	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2