Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-02-07 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 50.1%

CAR: 49.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.32

CAR: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 55%

TOR

P. Mrazek

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	P. Mrazek	31	28	3	90.3%	2.62	0	-0.38
CAR	Frederik Andersen	32	28	4	87.5%	3.19	0	-0.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TOR	13	0.98
1	CAR	18	0.93
2	TOR	13	1.13
2	CAR	12	1.15
3	TOR	13	0.78
3	CAR	9	0.49
4	TOR	4	0.30
4	CAR	2	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9