Calgary Flames at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions
2022-01-04 • FLA Live Arena
Florida Panthers 6 - 2 Calgary Flames
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
FLA: 56.3%
CGY: 43.7%
Expected Goals
FLA: 3.24
CGY: 2.96
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA
CGY
J. Markstrom
| Stat | FLA | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.80 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | Sergei Bobrovsky | 49 | 47 | 2 | 95.9% | 5.38 | 5 | 3.38 |
| CGY | J. Markstrom | 45 | 39 | 6 | 86.7% | 5.24 | 6 | -0.76 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • FLA at home vs CGY: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | CGY 4 - 1 FLA | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-11-28 | FLA 3 - 5 CGY | CGY | FLA |
| 2025-03-01 | FLA 3 - 0 CGY | FLA | FLA |
| 2024-12-14 | CGY 3 - 0 FLA | CGY | FLA |
| 2024-03-09 | FLA 5 - 1 CGY | FLA | FLA |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FLA | 17 | 2 | 1.36 |
| 1 | CGY | 17 | 0 | 1.19 |
| 2 | FLA | 22 | 4 | 3.12 |
| 2 | CGY | 17 | 2 | 1.60 |
| 3 | FLA | 10 | 0 | 0.77 |
| 3 | CGY | 20 | 3 | 2.59 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Florida Panthers 6 - 2 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0
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