St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-01-05 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

PIT: 57.3%

STL: 42.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.08

STL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

PIT

C. DeSmith

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	29	26	3	89.7%	2.77	1	-0.23
STL	Jordan Binnington	41	36	5	87.8%	3.62	1	-1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs STL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	0	0.97
1	STL	9	0	0.35
2	PIT	12	0	0.83
2	STL	17	1	1.84
3	PIT	21	1	1.82
3	STL	9	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0