Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-01-06 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 48.1%

CGY: 51.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.59

CGY: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	26	1	96.3%	2.61	0	1.61
CGY	Dan Vladar	33	29	4	87.9%	4.25	1	0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	22	1	1.82
1	CGY	10	0	0.70
2	TBL	22	0	1.50
2	CGY	9	0	0.80
3	TBL	10	0	0.93
3	CGY	17	0	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.6 - 3.1