Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-02-13 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

MTL: 42.6%

BUF: 57.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.95

BUF: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	32	27	5	84.4%	2.31	0	-2.69
BUF	C. Anderson	32	29	3	90.6%	2.91	1	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • MTL at home vs BUF: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	1	1.01
1	BUF	15	0	0.85
2	MTL	14	0	0.80
2	BUF	14	0	0.70
3	MTL	16	0	1.10
3	BUF	11	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2