Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-01-08 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 41.6%

PIT: 58.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.94

PIT: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	27	2	93.1%	2.50	1	0.50
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	29	3	90.6%	3.15	0	0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.53
1	PIT	14	0	0.82
2	DAL	17	0	1.06
2	PIT	13	1	0.94
3	DAL	18	0	1.55
3	PIT	12	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9