Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-01-08 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

COL: 54.2%

TOR: 45.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.38

TOR: 1.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 40%

COL

D. Kuemper

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	27	23	4	85.2%	3.23	1	-0.77
TOR	J. Campbell	49	44	5	89.8%	3.63	0	-1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	TOR
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	0.89
1	TOR	15	0	1.27
2	COL	17	0	0.89
2	TOR	13	0	1.08
3	COL	22	0	1.49
3	TOR	5	0	0.37
4	COL	3	0	0.36
4	TOR	2	1	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.0

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 1.6