Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2022-02-15 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 51.7%

TBL: 48.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.00

TBL: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

NJD

J. Gillies

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	J. Gillies	32	26	6	81.2%	2.91	2	-3.09
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	22	3	88.0%	3.27	3	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	12	1	0.93
1	TBL	6	1	0.37
2	NJD	13	1	1.22
2	TBL	17	1	1.31
3	NJD	14	1	1.12
3	TBL	17	0	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4