Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-01-15 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 6 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 53.0%

OTT: 47.0%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.43

OTT: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

OTT

M. Murray

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	26	20	6	76.9%	2.45	2	-3.55
OTT	M. Murray	37	33	4	89.2%	4.12	1	0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	EDM 5 - 4 OTT	EDM	OTT
2025-10-21	OTT 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-22	EDM 3 - 1 OTT	EDM	EDM
2024-11-19	OTT 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-03-24	OTT 5 - 3 EDM	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	0	1.74
1	OTT	8	0	0.50
2	EDM	12	0	1.08
2	OTT	10	0	0.50
3	EDM	17	1	1.29
3	OTT	18	2	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 6 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9