Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-01-11 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 52.2%

TBL: 47.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.93

TBL: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	36	30	6	83.3%	3.12	0	-2.88
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	18	17	1	94.4%	1.35	1	0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs TBL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	6	0	0.52
1	TBL	14	0	0.90
2	BUF	9	0	0.39
2	TBL	19	0	1.51
3	BUF	7	1	0.44
3	TBL	13	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3