Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-02-21 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 61.2%

CAR: 38.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.15

CAR: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

PHI

M. Jones

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	31	27	4	87.1%	3.22	2	-0.78
CAR	Frederik Andersen	41	38	3	92.7%	3.79	2	0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • PHI at home vs CAR: 1-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-05-02	CAR 3 - 0 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-04-13	PHI 3 - 2 CAR	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	19	0	1.05
1	CAR	7	0	0.14
2	PHI	14	1	1.26
2	CAR	18	1	1.48
3	PHI	18	1	0.99
3	CAR	15	1	0.92
4	PHI	5	0	0.50
4	CAR	7	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4