Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-01-11 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 54.0%

TOR: 46.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.39

TOR: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

VGK

R. Lehner

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	21	17	4	81.0%	3.00	2	-1.00
TOR	J. Campbell	37	34	3	91.9%	2.96	1	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	TOR
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	6	0	0.23
1	TOR	13	1	1.08
2	VGK	18	0	1.10
2	TOR	7	0	0.46
3	VGK	16	1	1.24
3	TOR	3	0	0.16
4	VGK	2	0	0.20
4	TOR	3	0	0.25
5	VGK	3	0	0.19
5	TOR	3	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8