Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions
2022-01-11 • Honda Center
Anaheim Ducks 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
ANA: 46.1%
PIT: 53.9%
Expected Goals
ANA: 2.75
PIT: 2.53
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
ANA
A. Stolarz
PIT
Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA
| Stat | ANA | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.892 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 3.12 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | A. Stolarz | 34 | 30 | 4 | 88.2% | 4.05 | 2 | 0.05 |
| PIT | Tristan Jarry | 26 | 25 | 1 | 96.2% | 2.18 | 1 | 1.18 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • ANA at home vs PIT: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | PIT 3 - 4 ANA | ANA | PIT |
| 2025-10-14 | ANA 4 - 3 PIT | ANA | ANA |
| 2025-01-23 | ANA 5 - 1 PIT | ANA | PIT |
| 2024-10-31 | PIT 2 - 1 ANA | PIT | PIT |
| 2023-11-07 | ANA 0 - 2 PIT | PIT | PIT |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ANA | 9 | 0 | 0.78 |
| 1 | PIT | 23 | 1 | 1.32 |
| 2 | ANA | 12 | 1 | 0.81 |
| 2 | PIT | 16 | 0 | 1.02 |
| 3 | ANA | 14 | 0 | 0.58 |
| 3 | PIT | 12 | 1 | 1.71 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.3
Score Breakdown
Anaheim Ducks 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 2.7 - 2.5
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