Toronto Maple Leafs at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-01-12 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

ARI: 57.8%

TOR: 42.2%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.92

TOR: 4.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	46	45	1	97.8%	3.85	2	2.85
TOR	P. Mrazek	18	16	2	88.9%	1.87	1	-0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ARI at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-29	TOR 4 - 2 ARI	TOR	TOR
2024-02-21	ARI 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2022-12-29	ARI 6 - 3 TOR	ARI	TOR
2022-10-17	TOR 2 - 4 ARI	ARI	TOR
2022-03-10	TOR 4 - 5 ARI	ARI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	10	0	0.71
1	TOR	28	1	1.85
2	ARI	9	1	0.72
2	TOR	19	1	0.96
3	ARI	8	0	0.44
3	TOR	16	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 4.4