Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-01-13 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

TBL: 54.4%

VAN: 45.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.23

VAN: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	24	2	92.3%	2.46	0	0.46
VAN	Thatcher Demko	21	17	4	81.0%	3.16	1	-0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs VAN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	VAN
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.72
1	VAN	18	0	0.93
2	TBL	5	0	0.36
2	VAN	8	0	0.54
3	TBL	10	1	2.08
3	VAN	14	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0