New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-01-15 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 59.8%

NYR: 40.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.79

NYR: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 47%

PHI

C. Hart

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	27	24	3	88.9%	1.48	0	-1.52
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	28	26	2	92.9%	1.61	1	-0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs NYR: 1-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	8	0	0.27
1	NYR	11	0	0.49
2	PHI	9	0	0.33
2	NYR	16	0	0.61
3	PHI	19	1	1.01
3	NYR	10	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9