Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2022-01-15 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

STL: 42.2%

TOR: 57.8%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.68

TOR: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	40	34	6	85.0%	3.32	0	-2.68
TOR	J. Campbell	25	20	5	80.0%	2.22	0	-2.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	STL	13	0.82
1	TOR	15	1.23
2	STL	13	0.84
2	TOR	16	1.04
3	STL	5	0.56
3	TOR	17	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 5 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.7 - 3.1