New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-01-31 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

TOR: 60.2%

NJD: 39.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.32

NJD: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 54%

TOR

J. Campbell

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	29	25	4	86.2%	2.36	0	-1.64
NJD	A. Schmid	33	27	6	81.8%	3.66	2	-2.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TOR at home vs NJD: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.84
1	NJD	15	0	0.98
2	TOR	17	0	0.74
2	NJD	16	0	0.97
3	TOR	13	2	2.08
3	NJD	4	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9