Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-01-17 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 48.1%

PHI: 51.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.79

PHI: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 55%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	27	26	1	96.3%	2.99	0	1.99
PHI	M. Jones	31	27	4	87.1%	4.74	4	0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYI at home vs PHI: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	20	0	1.60
1	PHI	12	0	0.92
2	NYI	9	1	1.07
2	PHI	19	0	1.29
3	NYI	15	3	2.07
3	PHI	11	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3