Montreal Canadiens at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-01-17 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 49.0%

MTL: 51.0%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.03

MTL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	26	24	2	92.3%	2.01	1	0.01
MTL	Cayden Primeau	23	18	5	78.3%	4.48	3	-0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ARI at home vs MTL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-27	MTL 4 - 2 ARI	MTL	MTL
2023-11-02	ARI 3 - 2 MTL	ARI	ARI
2022-12-19	ARI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2022-10-20	MTL 6 - 2 ARI	MTL	MTL
2022-03-15	MTL 3 - 6 ARI	ARI	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	13	0	0.90
1	MTL	12	0	0.46
2	ARI	13	1	1.21
2	MTL	19	0	0.87
3	ARI	15	2	2.37
3	MTL	10	1	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0