Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-01-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

VGK: 45.6%

PIT: 54.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.94

PIT: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

VGK

R. Lehner

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	37	32	5	86.5%	4.24	3	-0.76
PIT	Tristan Jarry	26	23	3	88.5%	2.96	2	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	16	1	1.52
1	PIT	12	0	0.60
2	VGK	12	0	0.48
2	PIT	23	1	2.41
3	VGK	16	1	0.96
3	PIT	11	2	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2