Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-02-09 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 56.3%

DET: 43.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.52

DET: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

PHI

C. Hart

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	34	28	6	82.4%	4.35	2	-1.65
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	24	21	3	87.5%	2.28	1	-0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs DET: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	1	1.15
1	DET	21	1	1.36
2	PHI	12	0	0.78
2	DET	16	0	1.45
3	PHI	7	0	0.35
3	DET	12	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0