Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-01-18 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 48.9%

WPG: 51.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.37

WPG: 4.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

WSH

V. Vanecek

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	33	30	3	90.9%	3.58	0	0.58
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	31	27	4	87.1%	2.99	0	-1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs WPG: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	WPG 5 - 1 WSH	WPG	WSH
2025-11-26	WSH 4 - 3 WPG	WSH	WSH
2025-03-25	WPG 3 - 2 WSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-01	WSH 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WSH
2024-03-24	WSH 3 - 0 WPG	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	WSH	17	1.26
1	WPG	15	1.31
2	WSH	14	1.06
2	WPG	16	1.23
3	WSH	13	0.45
3	WPG	17	1.05
4	WSH	2	0.22
4	WPG	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 4.4