Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-01-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 64.4%

MTL: 35.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.16

MTL: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	22	17	5	77.3%	1.92	0	-3.08
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	51	48	3	94.1%	5.96	2	2.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs MTL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	23	0	1.39
1	MTL	9	0	0.50
2	DAL	24	0	1.53
2	MTL	12	0	0.58
3	DAL	34	2	3.04
3	MTL	10	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8