Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2022-01-20 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Dallas Stars
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 40.5%
DAL: 59.5%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.92
DAL: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
A. Dell
DAL
B. Holtby
| Stat | BUF | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | A. Dell | 47 | 42 | 5 | 89.4% | 4.11 | 0 | -0.89 |
| DAL | B. Holtby | 24 | 20 | 4 | 83.3% | 2.94 | 2 | -1.06 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • BUF at home vs DAL: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | BUF 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | BUF |
| 2025-12-31 | DAL 1 - 4 BUF | BUF | DAL |
| 2024-12-31 | DAL 4 - 2 BUF | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-10-22 | BUF 4 - 2 DAL | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-04-09 | DAL 3 - 2 BUF | DAL | DAL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 14 | 0 | 0.97 |
| 1 | DAL | 21 | 0 | 1.38 |
| 2 | BUF | 9 | 1 | 0.85 |
| 2 | DAL | 25 | 0 | 1.75 |
| 3 | BUF | 8 | 1 | 1.13 |
| 3 | DAL | 18 | 0 | 0.98 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.9 - 3.1
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