Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-01-20 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

PIT: 66.7%

OTT: 33.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.86

OTT: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 56%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	43	39	4	90.7%	3.58	1	-0.42
OTT	Anton Forsberg	34	28	6	82.4%	4.02	4	-1.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PIT at home vs OTT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	2	1.63
1	OTT	24	0	1.42
2	PIT	17	1	1.20
2	OTT	8	0	0.54
3	PIT	11	1	1.20
3	OTT	17	1	1.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8