Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-01-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

Win Probability

VGK: 64.2%

MTL: 35.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.81

MTL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

VGK

R. Lehner

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	27	24	3	88.9%	2.87	4	-0.13
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	53	49	4	92.5%	4.46	4	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • VGK at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	23	1	1.38
1	MTL	12	2	1.33
2	VGK	19	1	1.22
2	MTL	9	2	0.75
3	VGK	24	1	1.46
3	MTL	7	0	0.49
4	VGK	3	1	0.41
4	MTL	4	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.8 - 3.0