Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-01-21 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 57.4%

DAL: 42.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.95

DAL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

DAL

B. Holtby

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	32	27	5	84.4%	2.38	0	-2.62
DAL	B. Holtby	28	24	4	85.7%	2.56	0	-1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • DET at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	DAL 3 - 2 DET	DAL	DAL
2025-12-23	DET 4 - 3 DAL	DET	DET
2025-04-14	DET 6 - 4 DAL	DET	DET
2025-01-19	DAL 4 - 1 DET	DAL	DAL
2024-01-23	DET 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DET	15	1.19
1	DAL	12	0.61
2	DET	12	0.58
2	DAL	13	0.61
3	DET	11	0.65
3	DAL	11	0.64
4	DET	1	0.15
4	DAL	5	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1