Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2022-01-21 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 43.6%

TBL: 56.4%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.72

TBL: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	33	32	1	97.0%	5.00	1	4.00
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	30	5	85.7%	3.47	2	-1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • ANA at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	TBL
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	23	0	1.19
1	TBL	10	0	0.91
2	ANA	14	0	1.14
2	TBL	20	0	1.61
3	ANA	13	2	1.15
3	TBL	22	1	2.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4