Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-01-22 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 49.6%

PHI: 50.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.06

PHI: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

M. Houser

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	M. Houser	33	30	3	90.9%	2.26	0	-0.74
PHI	M. Jones	24	18	6	75.0%	2.51	1	-3.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs PHI: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	BUF
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	1.19
1	PHI	13	0	0.43
2	BUF	11	0	0.56
2	PHI	17	0	1.12
3	BUF	12	1	0.76
3	PHI	18	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9