Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-01-22 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators (OT)

Win Probability

WSH: 62.4%

OTT: 37.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.49

OTT: 2.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

WSH

V. Vanecek

OTT

M. Murray

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	22	20	2	90.9%	2.14	1	0.14
OTT	M. Murray	33	30	3	90.9%	3.76	1	0.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs OTT: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.81
1	OTT	5	0	0.17
2	WSH	21	0	1.01
2	OTT	14	1	1.00
3	WSH	16	1	1.79
3	OTT	20	0	0.97
4	WSH	2	0	0.16
4	OTT	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6